What you will need to know...
KEY CONCEPT - Future possibilities for the sustainable management of urban systems
Urban growth projections for 2050, including regional/continental patterns and trends of rural–urban migration and changing urban population sizes and structures.
Resilient city design, including strategies to manage escalating climatic and geopolitical risks to urban areas
Two detailed examples to illustrate possible strategies
Eco city design, including strategies to manage the urban ecological footprint
Two detailed examples to illustrate possible environmental strategies
Smart city design and the use of new technology to run city services and systems, including purpose-built settlements and retrofitting technology to older settlements
KEY CONCEPT - Future possibilities for the sustainable management of urban systems
Urban growth projections for 2050, including regional/continental patterns and trends of rural–urban migration and changing urban population sizes and structures.
Resilient city design, including strategies to manage escalating climatic and geopolitical risks to urban areas
Two detailed examples to illustrate possible strategies
Eco city design, including strategies to manage the urban ecological footprint
Two detailed examples to illustrate possible environmental strategies
Smart city design and the use of new technology to run city services and systems, including purpose-built settlements and retrofitting technology to older settlements
Urban growth projections for 2050...
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Starter: Watch the video to the right that shows the likely top 20 most populated urban areas on Earth in 2050.
Make a list of the countries that are predicted to have had over a 100% increase in population growth by 2050. Task 1 - Click the blue tab below to be taken to the 2018 United Nations World Urbanization Prospects Highlights. Summarise the data into 7 pieces of crucial and need to know data that predict life in 2050. Task 2 - Using the embedded map directly below, drag the time slider back to your year of birth and take a screen grab. Do this for this year and for 2050. Copy the three maps into a Word Doc / One Note and make detailed notes on the urban growth changes between your year of birth and 2050. Refer to regional/continental patterns |
Task 3 -The chart below shows the relationship between the share of the population living in urban areas (y-axis) and average income (gross domestic product per capita) on the x-axis. Take a copy of the chart and comment on the relationship shown. Now, give three reasons why this relationship exists. |
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Projected urban shares to 2050
The past 50 years in particular have seen a rapid increase in rates of urbanization across the world. Are these trends likely to continue?
The UN World Urbanization Prospects provides estimates of urban shares across the world through to 2050. These projections are shown in the chart below — using the timeline you can watch this change over time.
Across all countries urban shares are projected to increase in the coming decades, although at varied rates. By 2050, it's projected that 68 percent of the world's population will live in urban areas (an increase from 54 percent in 2016). In fact, by 2050 there are very few countries where rural shares are expected to be higher than urban. These include several across Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, Pacific Island States, and Guyana in Latin America.
Why, when most countries are expected to be majority urban, does the global total just over two-thirds? This seems low, but results from the fact that many of the world's most populated countries have comparably low urban shares (either just over half, or less). For example, India (expected to be the world's most populous country), is projected to have an urban share of only 53 percent in 2050
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Rural To Urban Migration
Click on the image to the right. This cartogram shows how the distribution of rural populations compares in absolute and relative terms. The large, main map shows the countries of the world resized according to the total number of each’s rural population as of 2016. The varying green shades show the proportion of a country’s total population that live in a rural area (see key, bottom left). Task 4 - Using this link to the excellent WorldMapper site, take notes on future trends in rural to urban migration as well as the reasons for this. Note links to megacities and migration in the Perspectives section. |
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Changing Urban Population Sizes Task 5 - Watch the World Population video to the right. Watch the full video but take two screen shots from both 1950 and 2050. Click on this link from Wikipedia and study the league table showing urban growth in the largest cities from 1950 and 2050. Pick out key cities and note down the associated data. How does the ranking change between now and 2050 and then by 2075? Construct a piece of writing where you comment on the patterns and changes shown and link to what you have already learned. Changing Population Structures Task 6 - Watch the 'Changing Population' video to the right and take notes on the major ways in which the future population will change and the challenges that this will bring to different places around the World. Task 7 - Click this link and take further notes on the 'Demographic Dividend' and how it can be linked to improvements in human development, gender equality etc. |
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Resilient Cities...
As we have seen, major cities experience a number of stressed relating to population growth, resource use (water, energy, food), crime, waste disposal and natural hazards. As such and in recent years, cities have had to come up with a plan to be more resilient in the face of adversity.
Task 1 - Click here to read a Guardian article about Resilient Cities. Make notes on the concept of a resilient city as well as terms such as 'magnet' and 'bombs'.
We are going to be using New York as our focus for both case studies in this section.
NEW YORK CITY’S POPULATION IS AT A RECORD HIGH AND IS PROJECTED TO SURPASS 9 MILLION BY 2050, as New York continues to be a magnet for people searching for opportunity. This is true across the metropolitan region as well: The current regional population of 23 million is expected to swell to over 26 million by 2050.
Part 1 - Climate Change Resilience.
Climatic risks facing cities can include:
1. Floods & storms
2. More intense heatwaves (as seen globally in 2023)
3. Prolonged cold weather and intense snowfall and associated hazards
4. A potential intensification of cyclone activity (i.e. Hurricane Sandy, New York 2012).
Solutions, including mitigation strategies to these climate risks can include:
1. Building levees and embankments to reduce risk of flooding
2. Early warning systems to track storms / weather systems
3. Evacuation procedures
4. Sustainable planning for future cities to include reduction of GHG's and reduction of energy demand.
We will be studying a small part of a 10-year plan by New York City and their Mayor (Bill de Blasio) that you can download here.
80 by 50
Note - it is 114 pages in length buy you should use the guidelines below to create your notes.
1. Read the 'foreword' from the Mayor on page 5. In less than 50 words, outline the problem that NY faces and what it plans to do. Include at least two pieces of data explaining 80 by 50.
2. Turn to page 7 ' Executive Summary' - What does it mean to be a city that is built to last?
3. Turn to page 10 - Opportunities to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Buildings. Outline the three opportunities to reduce greenhouse emissions from buildings.
4. Turn to page 21. Outline three impacts on New York City that have been attributed to climate change.
5. Turn to pages 46 - 57. Choose one of the following schemes and make notes on the plans and the likely impacts of the scheme. Don't forget to include key data (top of each page) and reference to place too.
Option 1 - Invest in High Value Projects in All City-Owned Buildings
Option 2 - Expand Solar Power on City Rooftops
Option 3 - Implement Deep Retrofits in Key City Facilities
Part 2 - Geopolitical Resilience
Geopolitical risks facing cities can include:
1. Social issues brought about because of segregation based on wealth or other cultural factors (race).
2. Terrorism and terrorist attacks e.g. New York 11 September 2001.
3. Increase protests e.g. Gilets Jaunes (France) or social unrest (USA, after the killing of George Floyd)
4. Urban deprivation brought about because of the process of deindustrialisation (Detroit, USA).
Solutions to these geopolitical risks can include
1. New planning strategies and demolition of 'ghetto' tower blocks on the outskirts of cities (London, UK).
2. Counterterrorism intelligence and campaigns by public transport providers (See it, say it, sorted! - London Underground).
3. Political pressure and accountability of police and civil servants.
4. Reshoring by TNC's with government incentives.
Geopolitical risks facing cities can include:
1. Social issues brought about because of segregation based on wealth or other cultural factors (race).
2. Terrorism and terrorist attacks e.g. New York 11 September 2001.
3. Increase protests e.g. Gilets Jaunes (France) or social unrest (USA, after the killing of George Floyd)
4. Urban deprivation brought about because of the process of deindustrialisation (Detroit, USA).
Solutions to these geopolitical risks can include
1. New planning strategies and demolition of 'ghetto' tower blocks on the outskirts of cities (London, UK).
2. Counterterrorism intelligence and campaigns by public transport providers (See it, say it, sorted! - London Underground).
3. Political pressure and accountability of police and civil servants.
4. Reshoring by TNC's with government incentives.
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We are going to be focusing on another New York based organisation called the Joint Terrorism Task Forces (JTTF). This is a multi-law enforcement agency that includes NYPD detectives and FBI special agents who investigate terrorism in the New York City metropolitan area and around the world. Following the 9/11 attacks, the NYPD substantially increased the number of detectives assigned to the JTTF. This partnership with the FBI and other law enforcement agencies provides the NYPD with access to national level classified intelligence and the ability to analyse and share its own intelligence on the federal level.
Task - Watch the short video below from NBC and take notes on how the potential terrorism threat is being dealt with. Include data (number of potential attacks thwarted) as well as key groups who are under surveillance and criticisms of the organisation and their practises. |
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Eco cities...
In many cases, cities have overgrown their capabilities and so the focus now is on becoming more environmentally friendly.
In many countries, one or two major urban centers are major contributors to the national Ecological Footprint and also run significantly higher per capita Footprints than the average for their nations. Comparing city and national Footprints and biocapacity can thus shed more light on potential leverage points for improving sustainability. A report by The Global Footprint Network recently found that the resource demands of citizens in Athens exceeds the biocapacity of all of Greece.
It is impossible to find a completely eco friendly city today but we will be focusing on two schemes put into place by two cities that aim to reduce their environmental impact.
Case Study 1 - Masdar
In many countries, one or two major urban centers are major contributors to the national Ecological Footprint and also run significantly higher per capita Footprints than the average for their nations. Comparing city and national Footprints and biocapacity can thus shed more light on potential leverage points for improving sustainability. A report by The Global Footprint Network recently found that the resource demands of citizens in Athens exceeds the biocapacity of all of Greece.
It is impossible to find a completely eco friendly city today but we will be focusing on two schemes put into place by two cities that aim to reduce their environmental impact.
Case Study 1 - Masdar
Task - Complete the worksheet above by using the resources in this section.
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Case Study 2 - Stockholm & Waste Management.
Task: Complete the worksheet above by using the resources in this section.
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End Task - How might the above two detailed examples look in an examination.
Eco-cities offer excellent opportunities and few drawbacks for High Income Countries. Discuss this statement (10)
Smart Cities...
What can you see in this photo?
Where could this place be?
Is there anything unusual about this place?
Is this a busy place?
Introducing Songdo - South Korea...
Task 1 - Watch the video embedded below to get a feel for the possibilities presented by so called SMART cities. Then, watch the BBC video on this page.
Task 1 - Watch the video embedded below to get a feel for the possibilities presented by so called SMART cities. Then, watch the BBC video on this page.
