What you'll need to know...
KEY CONCEPT - Processes of population change and their effect on people and places
Population change and demographic transition over time, including natural increase, fertility rate, life expectancy, population structure and dependency ratios
• Detailed examples of two or more contrasting countries
The consequences of megacity growth for individuals and societies
• One case study of a contemporary megacity experiencing rapid growth
The causes and consequences of forced migration and internal displacement
• Detailed examples of two or more forced movements, to include environmental and political push factors, and consequences for people and places
Synthesis, evaluation and skills opportunities
How the impacts of population change and spatial interactions between places can be categorized and represented graphically
Population change and demographic transition over time, including natural increase, fertility rate, life expectancy, population structure and dependency ratios
• Detailed examples of two or more contrasting countries
The consequences of megacity growth for individuals and societies
• One case study of a contemporary megacity experiencing rapid growth
The causes and consequences of forced migration and internal displacement
• Detailed examples of two or more forced movements, to include environmental and political push factors, and consequences for people and places
Synthesis, evaluation and skills opportunities
How the impacts of population change and spatial interactions between places can be categorized and represented graphically
Demographic Transition over time...
Starter: Define the following terms:
Demographic transition is best viewed through the lens of the now famous Demographic Transition Model, as shown below. This is essentially a line graph that plots birth and death rates over time & levels of economic development (stages). When birth rates are higher than death rates, population increases (shown in blue) and when birth rates dip under death rates, a population decline may take place. There are countries around the world who find themselves in four of the five stages and one might also see the pattern of economic development increasing (LIC-MIC-HIC) along the X axis too.
Task 1 - Complete the worksheet below using the DTM model and your previous knowledge of the causes and effects of disparities in economic development.
Rules: 7 lines of writing only per stage, size 8 font. Colour code as follows:
- Natural increase
- Fertility rate
- Life expectancy
- Population structure
Demographic transition is best viewed through the lens of the now famous Demographic Transition Model, as shown below. This is essentially a line graph that plots birth and death rates over time & levels of economic development (stages). When birth rates are higher than death rates, population increases (shown in blue) and when birth rates dip under death rates, a population decline may take place. There are countries around the world who find themselves in four of the five stages and one might also see the pattern of economic development increasing (LIC-MIC-HIC) along the X axis too.
Task 1 - Complete the worksheet below using the DTM model and your previous knowledge of the causes and effects of disparities in economic development.
Rules: 7 lines of writing only per stage, size 8 font. Colour code as follows:
- Natural Increase - Blue
- Fertility Rates - Green
- Life Expectancy - Orange
- Population Structure - Red
TOK consideration: Why can't the early stages of the DTM above be attributed to Australia and the USA?
Dependency Ratio
The total dependency ratio tells us the proportion of the population not in the work-force who are ‘dependent’ on those of working-age, it’s a calculation which groups those aged under 15 with those over 65 years as the ‘dependents’ and classifying those aged 15-64 years as the working-age population. It’s a simplistic calculation which is used across the world to understand societies and get a sense of potential pressures the economy may face in supporting an economically dependent population. (source)
TOK consideration: One of the obvious limitations of dependency ratios is the assumption that people under 15 years and over 65 years (65+) are outside of the labour force, as well as the assumption that those aged 15-64 are participating in the labour force. We all know that these assumptions are flawed.
The total dependency ratio tells us the proportion of the population not in the work-force who are ‘dependent’ on those of working-age, it’s a calculation which groups those aged under 15 with those over 65 years as the ‘dependents’ and classifying those aged 15-64 years as the working-age population. It’s a simplistic calculation which is used across the world to understand societies and get a sense of potential pressures the economy may face in supporting an economically dependent population. (source)
TOK consideration: One of the obvious limitations of dependency ratios is the assumption that people under 15 years and over 65 years (65+) are outside of the labour force, as well as the assumption that those aged 15-64 are participating in the labour force. We all know that these assumptions are flawed.
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Study the graphic to the right carefully. You can click to enlarge it. The chart below presents the empirical evidence for the demographic transition for five very different countries in Europe, Latin America, Africa, and Asia. In all countries we observed the pattern of the demographic transition, first a decline of mortality that starts the population boom and then a decline of fertility which brings the population boom to an end. The population boom is a temporary event. In the past the size of the population was stagnant because of high mortality, now country after country is moving into a world in which the population is stagnant because of low fertility. |
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Task 2 - Using the graphics below, describe the process of population change in both France and Ethiopia. Make reference to Natural Increase, Fertility Rates, Life Expectancy and Population Structure.
France
Population stucture of France 1950 - 2000 - 2050
Demographic Transition in France 1950-2015
Dependency Ratio - France 1950-2015
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Ethiopia
Population structure of Ethiopia 1950 - 2000 - 2050
Demographic Transition in Ethiopia 1950-2015
Dependency Ratio - Ethiopia 1950-2015
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The consequences of megacity growth for individuals and societies...
We will not cover megacities in this section as we have already looked at Mumbai in the Urban Environments unit of work here.
The causes and consequences of forced migration and internal displacement...
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The International Association for the Study of Forced Migration (IASFM) defines it as "the movements of refugees and internally displaced people (those displaced by conflicts) as well as people displaced by natural or environmental disasters, chemical or nuclear disasters, famine, or development projects."
An internally displaced person (IDP) is someone who is forced to flee his or her home but who remains within his or her country's borders. They are often referred to as refugees, although they do not fall within the legal definitions of a refugee. Around the world, there are currently: People in refugee-like situation: 803,134 Refugees: 17.187 million IDPs: 36.627 million Asylum seekers: 2.826 million |
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For this section of work, we are required two forced movements of people. Again, we are going to refer back to the core unit on Climate Vulnerability & Resilience and the work we did on climate refugees in Bangladesh. This is a forced movement of people caused by the rising sea levels and more intense typhoons (environmental factors but with a human cause). The work that we completed can be found at the bottom of this page.
Our comparative case study will be the political situation in Venezuela and resultant movement of people out of the country (political). Venezuela has the highest oil reserves in the world but has suffered from an over reliance on oil and has faced severe economic hardship since hte price of oil decreased. Coupled with a complicated current political situation where there are two recognised leaders of the country (Nicolás Maduro & Juan Guaidó) this has led to geopolitical conflict among Venezuela, its neighbours as well as countries such as the USA and France.
**Please note the links here between population and 'Global Resource Consumption & Security'.
Task - Using the information below, take notes on using the following headings as a guide:
Our comparative case study will be the political situation in Venezuela and resultant movement of people out of the country (political). Venezuela has the highest oil reserves in the world but has suffered from an over reliance on oil and has faced severe economic hardship since hte price of oil decreased. Coupled with a complicated current political situation where there are two recognised leaders of the country (Nicolás Maduro & Juan Guaidó) this has led to geopolitical conflict among Venezuela, its neighbours as well as countries such as the USA and France.
**Please note the links here between population and 'Global Resource Consumption & Security'.
Task - Using the information below, take notes on using the following headings as a guide:
- Brief history of the forced migration situation
- The political push factors
- Consequences for people
- Consequences for surrounding countries (destinations)
- Geopolitical tensions between Venezuela and other countries.
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